Technology assessment and forecasting

“Change is the law of life”-John F Kennedy

As we are going to last lessons, the topic focuses more and more towards the future. Technology, after all, is invented to create better future for human kind.

In today lesson, Prof shows some videos that illustrate many possible developments in the future in different fields. Changes are happening everywhere in some main megatrends. There are potential developments in communication, new sources of energy, new methods to create friendlier environment in the social context that more and more buildings and factories are built. Augmented reality can also bring a lot of benefits to daily life. Possibilities are at everywhere, in every field around the world and people are preparing, investing to create a better future. So how can we get the best out of potential development?

But the crucial thing when people develop technology is that we need a clear vision. So why do we need a vision? “Look before or you will see yourself behind” Benjamin Franklin.

Foresight helps companies and countries to use the full potential of new technology and develop in the right track. Because possibilities are at everywhere, focus is the key to develop. We have to understand and acknowledge the current situation, where are gaps, what have to be better. Then we need to think about the vision, what we want to have in the future. Then look at the current situation and the future and have investment to innovate, invent to make the future vision come true. We also have to differentiate between long term and short tem innovations in order to distribute investments.

In order for technology to develop and serve human need, we need need to gain an understanding of what kinds of changes a tech can bring and decide whether and when to invest in R&D. Because R&D requires large financial investment, the government has to consider carefully about what field to invest on. Government has to understand what is the technology that will bring most value to society, is that agriculture, or health care, or renewable energy...

Analyzing the future potential of technologies so that we can take advantage of existing technologies to create the future and to know whether any technology can be invented to make the situation better. Some factors can motivate future technology are policies, network building, public engagement…

There are also many methodologies to achieve future vision. SWOT analysis: a strategic planning method used to evaluate strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats involved in applying or discovering a technology. SWOT analysis involves specifying the objective of the technology and identifying internal and external factors that are favorable and unfavorable to achieve the vision of future. SWOT analysis is really important because it helps people to decide whether they should invest in the technology, which technology goes with each other and whether it helps us to create the future vision.

Topics for further dicussion:

1. What technology worths most investment in Singapore now?
2. We talk a lot about technology’s role in the world development. Will there be any possibilities that technology can destroy the world?

Personal rating: 9/10. As I have gone through all lessons, I find classes are more and more interesting. I learn about new perspectives, new possibilities and overall, how many wonderful things technology brings to the world.

The Future

“Imangination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, whicle imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.”

- Albert Einstein

Nowadays, changes are the only certain thing. So what should we expect in the future? What will our imagination take us to? These are questions which were discussed in class today.

Why the world keeps changing and developing new technology? There are many drivers motivate future technology. First, since people always want to make lives easier and more convenient, people want more advanced and interactive technologies. For example, When there are needs in the market, companies will try to take the opportunity to develop new products. Second, there is also technology driver that lead to new development and possibilties. Iphone and Ipad are good examples for technology driver. People only need a mobile phone to keep contact with others when they go out. Customers did not expect or think about something like Iphone before since they do not really have need for a new kind of mobile phone. But when Iphone was introduced due to advanced technology developed by Apple, people started trying Iphone and eventually, Iphone becomes indispensable for many people. Iphone creates its own market and becomes the most popular mobile phone in the world. Although technology drivers need much investment and time to be developed, they actually create many possibilities. When a new technology is developed without market driver, people will look at it in many perspectives and can come up with more possibilities to apply the techonology. That being said, whatever the driver is, the most important thing for future technology development is people’s desire and determination to turn imagination into reality. People must dare to imagine, but more important, dare to act, to innovate new things.

Some new emerging technologies

Nanotechnologies:

Make new products possible. Arrange carbon in new ways to create sth new. One example of nanotechnology which I research for the group project is nanopatch. It is a new way of vaccine delivery. Nanopatch is a needle-free, pain-free method of vaccine delivery. The Nanopatch comprises arrays of densely packed projections with a defined geometry and distribution designed to physically target vaccines directly to thousands of epidermal and dermal antigen presenting cells. These miniaturized arrays are two orders of magnitude smaller than standard needles and are also much smaller than current microneedle arrays.

Using needles to deliver vaccines is popular worldwide. While this method is efficient and does not bring about problems in cites, it is really not an effective way to distribute vaccines to countryside and remote areas. The application of nanopatch will make transportation easier. Because the Nanopatch requires neither a trained practitioner to administer it nor refrigeration, it has enormous potential cheaply deliver vaccines. Moreover, nanopatch-delivered vaccines do not need refrigeration like traditional vaccines. Therefore, in the time of wars or pandemics, vaccines will be more accessible to remote areas since the cost of transportation is lower and vaccines are easily stored.

Augmented reality:

This technology is also mentioned in a presentation today. The future for this technology is promising since it creates interactive and real life situations. First, augmented reality is already used in computer games to create more interesting and real environment for players. Second, this technology is also applied in mobile phone application. By using augmented reality, GPS and camera, smart phones can identify where you are and then give directions or provide information about restaurants, shops around. This application will grow significantly in the future because of its convenience and effective interactions with users. Third, augmented reality can be applied interactive teaching and learning. Since the technology enables students to see events vividly as real life, they will have better learning experience.

Issues for further discussion:

-          Would advanced technology will make people too dependent on internet and equipment?

-          Is there any limitation of possibilities that humans can attain?

Personal rating:

I rate today lession 9 out of 10 because class is interesting and give me a lot of information about future technology development.

World Change and Energy Revolution

“If everyone consumed as much energy as the average Singaporean and US resident, the world’s oil reserves would be depleted in 9 years”

Energy is indispensable in human lives nowadays. From the time human know how to use energy, the demand for energy is growing significantly. People need energy in their daily activities, companies need energy to manufacture products… Coal and oil are two dominant sources to produce energy. The graph about global primary energy consumption showed in class illustrates a continual increase in oil and coal consumption in 25 consecutive years. People are using oil and coal to produce energy since they are cheap and accessible sources. However, in order to ensure energy security, people have to look for alternative sources to produce energy.

There are many drivers of global energy change. First, population growth and the global economic development make the world’s energy consumption increase dramatically. People are facing with the problem of resource exhaustion as a result of excessive consumption. At the same time, people also have to concern about energy distribution among countries. Developed countries are using high amount of energy while in some parts of the world, people can not access to electricity or lack energy to maintain production. Second, countries are trying to become more sustainable. Countries now are aware of the importance of sustainable development, countries and organizations are investing more to find new technology, new energy resources. Developed countries are investing in green sources of energy for a long time and big developing countries are catching up fast in the progress. China is now the world largest investment of $ 48 billion investment on alternative energy. This shows China’s focus on sustainable development and its strategic plan to provide enough energy for its large population. Last but not least, new technology and approaches is also technology driver of global energy changes. As advanced technology is available, people can consider new possibilities, new approaches to attain sustainability.

Still, the main question is “Is it possible to be energy green?” People are using wind power, solar power and water power to generate energy. But are natural resources enough to provide energy for growing demand of the world? Astonishingly, the answer is yes. Prof tells us one fact in class that is truly surprising. He said the amount of energy produced in one hour by the sun is equal to the energy human produce in 1 year. Therefore, there are so many possibilities to be more sustainable in energy production. We have to discover new tech to capture more solar energy. If we find effective method to combine renewable method, it is more than enough to meet the world demand. The government should create right incentives for companies and citizens to change to green energy. For example, in one video showed class, German government is encouraging its citizen to use solar panels for energy supply. Despite the fact that German has relative small amount of sunshine, German government finds benefits in using solar energy. It is said that if people invest on solar panels, consequently most solar energy owners have benefits.  We are also introduced about solar plant in desert and solar farming. All are possibilities for people to be independent of energy supply.

All things considered, the only problem remains is whether we are determined to be energy green. It is not easy to achieve energy sustainability but with the combined efforts of governments and socities, sooner or later, human can be independent of energy sources.

Personal rating: 9/10 The lesson is interesting and brings to me a lot of insights on green engery production. Interesting and informative videos also make the lesson more fun.