Technology assessment and forecasting

“Change is the law of life”-John F Kennedy

As we are going to last lessons, the topic focuses more and more towards the future. Technology, after all, is invented to create better future for human kind.

In today lesson, Prof shows some videos that illustrate many possible developments in the future in different fields. Changes are happening everywhere in some main megatrends. There are potential developments in communication, new sources of energy, new methods to create friendlier environment in the social context that more and more buildings and factories are built. Augmented reality can also bring a lot of benefits to daily life. Possibilities are at everywhere, in every field around the world and people are preparing, investing to create a better future. So how can we get the best out of potential development?

But the crucial thing when people develop technology is that we need a clear vision. So why do we need a vision? “Look before or you will see yourself behind” Benjamin Franklin.

Foresight helps companies and countries to use the full potential of new technology and develop in the right track. Because possibilities are at everywhere, focus is the key to develop. We have to understand and acknowledge the current situation, where are gaps, what have to be better. Then we need to think about the vision, what we want to have in the future. Then look at the current situation and the future and have investment to innovate, invent to make the future vision come true. We also have to differentiate between long term and short tem innovations in order to distribute investments.

In order for technology to develop and serve human need, we need need to gain an understanding of what kinds of changes a tech can bring and decide whether and when to invest in R&D. Because R&D requires large financial investment, the government has to consider carefully about what field to invest on. Government has to understand what is the technology that will bring most value to society, is that agriculture, or health care, or renewable energy...

Analyzing the future potential of technologies so that we can take advantage of existing technologies to create the future and to know whether any technology can be invented to make the situation better. Some factors can motivate future technology are policies, network building, public engagement…

There are also many methodologies to achieve future vision. SWOT analysis: a strategic planning method used to evaluate strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats involved in applying or discovering a technology. SWOT analysis involves specifying the objective of the technology and identifying internal and external factors that are favorable and unfavorable to achieve the vision of future. SWOT analysis is really important because it helps people to decide whether they should invest in the technology, which technology goes with each other and whether it helps us to create the future vision.

Topics for further dicussion:

1. What technology worths most investment in Singapore now?
2. We talk a lot about technology’s role in the world development. Will there be any possibilities that technology can destroy the world?

Personal rating: 9/10. As I have gone through all lessons, I find classes are more and more interesting. I learn about new perspectives, new possibilities and overall, how many wonderful things technology brings to the world.